Why EVs will drive future global car sales growth

And then there’s Europe — or at least its 16 major markets, not including Moldova, Lichtenstein. Europe had both the largest decline in internal combustion sales, down 56 percent year on year, and a similarly humongous increase in EV sales up 46 percent.

Europe’s sales “exceeded our expectations,” said BloombergNEF. More importantly, “the combination of new stimulus programs, new model launches, and automakers pushing to hit their carbon dioxide emissions targets should keep the market growing.”

The electric vehicle market will probably grow year-on-year in 2020. That’s quite a different expectation than we had four months ago, when BNEF published its Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook projecting an 18 percent year-on-year decline in EV sales.

With the global auto market post-peak and EV sales still growing, it stands to reason that EVs will become that much more important to the auto industry’s future growth as their market share increases.

As the world is many markets, however, so too are there many types of electric vehicles -— a fact businesses trying to capitalize on this global trend would do well to remember. Europe is exploring the different shapes that electric vehicles might take, which look more like Japan’s small cars than the U.S.’s large SUVs.

Subsidies and industrial policy drive China’s EV production and sales to a degree not seen elsewhere, meaning that their sales numbers could turn on a dime if Beijing so wills it. India and Southeast Asia buy electric cars, but it’s the region’s two-and three-wheel vehicles that are making a 600,000-barrel-per-day dent in global oil demand.

While the details are complicated, the overall auto sales message is clear: EVs are going to be driving global growth in the years to come.

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