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Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond odds, picks and best bets

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Richmond Raceway Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Below, we analyze the Federated Auto Parts 400 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Federated Auto Parts 400: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The NASCAR boys stop at Richmond for the first time this season, and it’s an important race as it’s the second playoff race. Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. (+500 for Saturday’s race) has won each of the past two Cup races in Richmond.

  • Toyota has registered four straight wins at Richmond, and seven victories in the past nine stops with Chevrolet and Ford with one win apiece.
  • Truex’s JGR teammate Kyle Busch (+800) swept both 2018 races at Richmond, and he has six victories in his career at the track. In 29 career starts at Richmond, he has 18 finishes inside the top 5, 1,484 laps led and a sparkling 6.79 Average-Finish Position (AFP) to lead all drivers.
  • Virginia native Denny Hamlin (+400) is the chalk. He has three wins, 13 top 5s, 18 top 10s and a 9.15 AFP in his 27 career starts at Richmond. He also leads all drivers with 1,659 laps led.

Who is going to win the Federated Auto Parts 400?

HAMLIN will be racing near his hometown of Chesterfield, Va., and he always seems to show out at Richmond. He and KYLE BUSCH are outstanding selections due to Toyota’s dominance over the past few years.

Busch has yet to win a race this season, but the defending series champ is at one of his favorite tracks. He won the Toyota Owners 400 in the Spring of 2018, starting from 32nd in the grid, the lowest starting spot for a winner in the 127 Cup races at Richmond.

TRUEX has the back-to-back wins at this track and has finished inside the top 10 in six of his past eight Richmond starts. His 10.3 AFP over the past 10 ranks seventh among all active drivers.

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If anyone is going to break the Toyota monopoly, it’s Penske Racing’s JOEY LOGANO (+700). He has posted two wins in 22 career starts at the track, while posting nine finishes in the top 5 and 12 results inside the top 10. His 11.14 AFP ranks fourth among active drivers.

Richmond Raceway long-shot bets

CLINT BOWYER (+3000) has registered four consecutive finishes inside the top 10 at Richmond, posting a 7.5 AFP during the impressive span. In 28 career starts, he has a pair of victories at Richmond while posting five top 5s and 16 top 10s with 393 laps led and a 12.5 AFP.

Everyone seems to overlook RYAN NEWMAN (+8000), but he just ticks off impressive results week in and week out. He ranks seventh among all active drivers with a 12.33 AFP, one career win, eight top 5s and 20 top-10 finishes in his 36 career starts at the short track. Four of those top-10 runs have come in his past six Cup starts, averaging a 12.7 AFP during the stretch.

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